The Fresh Political

The Most Absurd Item of the Week - Hillary's Bonehead Attack Ad

2008-02-14T17:07:00.000-08:00

Hillary Clinton Recently Released An Attack Ad That Distorts and Misleads, Earning her The Fresh Political's most valued weekly prize.

Hillary Clinton began airing an attack ad in Wisconsin this week. See the ad below:

The ad's implications are not only ridiculous; they are also false and misleading.

1. Debates: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have debated 18 times this primary season. Barack Obama has already agreed to two more debates with Clinton. Hillary Clinton has requested a total of four more debates over the course of the next month - a ridiculous number considering the tightness of this campaign and the packed schedule that lies ahead for each candidate. With an election this close, these debates would serve for free publicity for the Clinton campaign. It's little wonder why Clinton is clamoring for more debates considering her campaign's recent financial woes. The Obama campaign had no option but to refuse such a outrageous request. However, the price paid was that his refusal gave impetus to Clinton's misleading attacks.

2. Healthcare: Once again, Hillary Clinton distorts Barack Obama's healthcare plan. The ad touts that Clinton's plan is the only one that "covers EVERY American." This is patently false. Each plan takes steps to ensure that coverage is available for any American who wants health insurance. However, the one major difference is that Hillary's plan mandates that everyone has some type of coverage, even those who may not be able to afford it.

Barack Obama has stated that his plan would provide affordable insurance to anybody who wants it, but he believes that mandating insurance is not the right solution. Hillary Clinton has suggested that she is even willing to garnish wages in order to ensure that everyone buys coverage. Obama argues that this would only worsen the problem by forcing the poorest Americans into insurance, rather then giving them the freedom to choose. Obama has said that he will mandate insurance for parents with kids in order to protect children.

3. Economic Plans: The ad states that Hillary Clinton's economic plan is the only one that "freezes foreclosures." In itself, this statement is true. However, the ad is misleading. By not mentioning Obama's alternative plan, the ad implies that Barack Obama has no plan to solve the mortgage crisis at all. This is not true.

Barack Obama has proposed a similar plan, however it does not include freezing foreclosures. Instead, Obama's plan would set-up a fund to offer "direct relief" to struggling homeowners. In addition, Obama's plan goes directly for the crooked mortgage companies by instituting new penalties for companies that commit mortgage fraud. You can read the entire plan here.

For these reasons, Clinton's misleading attacks earn her this week's Most Absurd Item of the Week.

Obama Closes Delegate Gap With Potomac Sweep, Clinton Falters Among Women

2008-02-12T16:29:00.000-08:00

Clean Sweep

Despite harsh weather and bad traffic resulting in a polling extension in Maryland, Barack Obama coasted to an easy sweep of the so-called 'Potomac Primaries' of Maryland, Washington D.C., and Virginia Tuesday evening. The sweep has the potential to propel his campaign closer to the nomination.

Obama Holds Delegate Lead

Obama now holds a strong delegate lead over Hillary Clinton even counting Superdelegates. The dominant factor that the Clinton campaign has been touting is their delegate lead. However, this is no longer the case by any count: CNN and MSNBC both have Obama leading.

The Diminishing Role of Superdelegates

Superdelegates which have strongly favored Clinton until this point are no longer enough for Clinton to hold a majority of delegates over Obama. It will be interesting to see if Clinton's Superdelegates begin to waver as a result of Obama's huge momentum. In the coming days, Superdelegates may hop onto the Obama bandwagon.

If the race continues to trend in Obama's favor, it appears that Superdelegates may no longer be a factor at all. With each passing day it becomes more apparent that Obama may be able to win the nomination without the help of Superdelegates - an event that would surely help to unite a heavily divided Democratic Party. If the race is decided by Superdelegates, the Democrats may face severe fracturing as a result. Barack Obama's rise is not only good for his supporters, but it may patch the Democratic Party as a whole.

Obama Has Won More States

After tonight, Obama has won almost twice the number of state contests that Clinton has. Out of 34 contests so far, Obama has won 23 of those contests. Obama's success in smaller states speaks to his nationwide viability.

Women Women Women!

Perhaps the most striking observation Tuesday evening was the shift among women in Virginia. According to CNN, exit polls demonstrated that a majority of women voted for Obama, a demographic that had voted strongly for Clinton in the past.

Women are a key for the nomination, so these exit polls are certainly disconcerting for the Clinton campaign. Without a majority of women, Clinton may falter going forward in big states like Ohio and Texas.

Are Latinos Enough?

Texas, the reported 'firewall' for the Clinton campaign does have a wild card: Latinos. Latino voters have also gone strongly for Clinton in past contests. However, it is hard to imagine that the Latino vote will be enough to make up for Clinton's loss of women voters.

Clinton Campaign Shakeup #2

The Clinton campaign is clearly fearing an Obama takeover. This evening another aide to the Clinton campaign resigned. The Clinton campaign is saying that they had not expected the campaign to go on for this long, and that early leadership had been unwise with funds.

Protracted Fight

What has become a protracted fight with Obama seems to favor the Obama campaign. Hillary Clinton will have to do more than retool the people leading her campaign to regain any momentum. She will need to retool her message to cater to lower income Democrats who seem to favor Clinton up to this point.

Would an Edwards endorsement be enough to boost Clinton's support? Unlikely. If the Kennedy endorsement was any indicator, for whatever reason endorsements just don't seem to have much of an impact on this race.

However, in such a tight race, who knows what could happen?

Obama Wins Virginia By A 'Substantial Margin'

2008-02-12T16:02:00.000-08:00

At 4:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday CNN projected that Barack Obama won the Virginia primary by a substantial margin. While this contest was expected to go in Obama's favor, it could close the delegate gap between Clinton and Obama.

Exit polls demonstrate trouble for Clinton going forward. According to the polls, Obama won a majority among almost all of the demographics that Clinton typically dominates. This includes women and whites.

Obama dominated among women, a demographic expected to go largely for Clinton. Past contests have shown that women propelled Clinton to her wins. This was not the case in Virginia.

Additionally, in past contests, Clinton was able to capture a majority of the white vote. The white vote in Virginia was split dead even between Clinton and Obama. Virginia demonstrates a potential shift in demographics.

This could bode well for Barack Obama's campaign. If there is a consistent shift among women towards Obama, this could potentially eat away at Clinton's key demographic going forward into Texas and Ohio.

Perhaps even more concerning for the Clinton campaign are Latino voters. If Clinton wants to win Texas she will need the majority support of Latinos. Exit polls in Virginia showed she is faltering among Latinos as well. According to CNN, Obama led Clinton among Latinos 54% to 46%.

With Obama's big wins tonight, the question for the Clinton campaign will no longer be whether or not they can win Texas and Ohio - it will be by how much can they win. Clinton will not be able to clinch the nomination by simply edging Obama out in a few big states. If Obama performs well tonight, she will need much larger margins in the big states in order to win a knockout blow.

We will be following the results live as they come in. Stick around.

The Obama rEVOLution?

2008-02-11T20:32:00.000-08:00

Question: What do Ron Paul and Barack Obama have in common?
Answer: Money bombs

Have Ron Paul supporters passed the torch to Barack Obama? Have they given up on their chosen one and joined forces? There's no doubt that the combination of Ron Paul and Barack Obama supporters would pack a powerful online punch. Additionally, there is little denying that both candidates dominate the internet. But what was the catalyst for all of this speculation in the first place?

Apparently tomorrow marks the day of the first ever Obama money bomb. According to the article at the Daily Kos, supporters plan on donating $5.01. Here is the explanation provided on Daily Kos:

Small donations are powering Obama's campaign

Lincoln is on the $5 bill and the penny

.01 is also for us online progressives making a statement to the campaign that we are here and we've got money. That we aren't the huge bundlers for campaigns. We sacrifice parts of paychecks that mean more proportionally to those of us with smaller incomes. We buy into Barack Obama because we do dream of a more hopeful future instead of cynicsm. I would much rather be called a Hopemonger than a Warmonger. So if you believe in the hope that small donors are powering the Obama campaign, please join me in showing that when Americans united with Hope can wield large influence with small donations!

The question is, can Obama supporters recreate the success of the Paulites? Ron Paul supporters have had massive success with money bombs. For example, the aptly named "Tea Party" bomb reportedly netted $6.04 Million for Ron Paul, forcing the mainstream media to pay attention to Ron Paul (even if it was for only a minute or so before they returned to their 'chosen ones').

The story reached the top of Reddit by Monday evening, perhaps suggesting it has the power to recreate the success begun by Paul revolutionaries.

As of Monday night, there was no ticker representing dollar value available on the Obama website. However, there was a live ticker of the number of donors available.

Perhaps the Obama campaign will get wind of the news and provide supporters with one so they can follow the action.

In any case, fasten your seatbelts and get ready for the Obama rEVOLution* to begin.

*Copyright Ron Paul Supporters

Obama Leads in Delegates, States, and Margins

2008-02-11T12:39:00.000-08:00

The current delegate count according to the Results Center on Barack Obama's website had him ahead by 87 delegates, heading into the Potomac primaries this Tuesday. The total count is 1031 for Obama to Clinton's 944. Perhaps more stunning however is the number of states that each candidate has won.

Out of 31 states that have held their contests so far, Obama has defeated Clinton in 20 of those states. The margins of victory in each contest seems to differ by candidate.

The Fresh Political has done its own thorough analysis of each state based upon CNN statistics. This is what we have found:

Average Vote Share By Candidate (%)

According to this data, Obama's victories are both greater in number, and magnitude than Clinton's victories. The Median percentage in all contests as of Monday shows Obama performing much better on average. Obama's median percentage is 48.5% to Clinton's 32%. The disparity reflects Clinton's inability to perform well in smaller states, especially those holding caucuses. The average margin of victory in caucus states is even greater for Obama.

The Clinton campaign has recently been saying that their strategy is to do well in the fewer, more populous contests ahead. This includes Texas and Pennsylvania. If Clinton can pull off a win in these big states, it could potentially be viewed as an upset that might propel her to the nomination. However, this seems unlikely considering Obama's powerful performance in smaller states.

It is also important to note that Obama's average vote share is not only high due to his strong performance in caucus states. He has also shown the ability to eat away at Clinton's lead in states that she was expected to dominate. For example, her margin of victory in her home state of New York and neighboring New Jersey was half that of Obama's margin in his own home state of Illinois.

The averages seem to reflect that the tide is changing. Even in states where Clinton had a huge homefield advantage, Obama has demonstrated his ability to give Clinton a run for her money. Combine this with the momentum gained from his sweep this weekend, and it appears that Obama is leaving Clinton in the dust.

New national polls seem to reflect this changing tide. A USA Today poll today showed Obama leading Clinton by 3 points for the first time in any national poll.

Obama's Sweep Creates Wave of Momentum - Onto Chesapeake Contests

2008-02-10T23:29:00.000-08:00

This weekend was huge for Barack Obama. The momentum seems to be building in Obama's favor following four landslide victories in Nebraska, Washington State, Louisiana, and lastly (but definitely not least), Maine. Meanwhile, financial woes and campaign shakeups on the Clinton side would leave anybody nervous about the condition of the Clinton campaign. The Clinton campaign, far from its 'invincible' position only weeks ago, now appears marred by financial and leadership woes.

Campaign Woes
Firstly, following Super Duper Tuesday news broke about Hillary Clinton's $5 Million loan. In a last ditch effort to match Obama's massive spending in Super Tuesday states, Clinton loaned her own campaign 5 Million dollars. The Clinton Spin Machine was on top of it, characterizing the loan as a sign of her loyalty to the cause... that is, her own cause. In an effort to quell any doubts about her fundraising prowess, the campaign made a recent push to improve online fundraising - an aspect of the Clinton campaign that has been seriously lacking. The recent online push seems to have been largely successful.

However, financial woes are not the end of the problems facing the Clinton camp. Over the weekend, Clinton's campaign manager stepped down. The question remains: After Obama's fantastic weekend, is it too late for the Clinton campaign to retool?

The shakeups could not have come at a worse time. The race has reached a dead heat, where any missteps could spell disaster. This weekend might bode very poorly for the Clinton camp in the coming days.

As Action Peaks, Chesapeake Contests Approach
And there is no shortage of action just around the corner.

The Clinton campaign will have no time to breath with the so-called "Potomac Primaries" this Tuesday. Recent Mason-Dixon polls showed Obama leading handily in Virginia, Maryland just ahead of their primaries.

A Three-Week Drought?
Can the Clinton campaign survive three weeks with no wins? The campaign is still playing the low expectations game, claiming that they did not expect to win the smaller, caucus states over the weekend. However, Maine was a so-called 'battleground' that the Clinton campaign had hoped to nab, but did not.

Is Bigger Better?
The strategy for the Clinton campaign going forward will be all about bigger states, like Texas. This is beginning to sound a lot like Rudy Giuliani *cough cough*. What are the chances that Texas will provide a firewall for Clinton if she suffers blow after blow in the weeks to come? Not very good.

Giuliani's Fall From Grace
We saw the Giuliani strategy implode as McCain, Huckabee, and Romney won huge wins in early states. Clinton will need an upset victory going forward to regain any momentum. There is little doubt that the Clinton Campaign is stalled, and it will not be rejuvenated without a strong showing.

However, it is still possible that the Clinton strategy will prove to be a success. There was more at play in Giuliani's demise including his huge losses in early primaries. These do not necessarily apply to the Clinton campaign as she has won her share of big contests. The question is how many losses her campaign can amass before it is viewed as a sinking ship.

There's no telling what will happen in the days to come. However, it seems to be trending in Obama's favor. While Texas could still go for Clinton due to the Latino vote, it seems like such a win would not be valuable enough to create any traction.