The current delegate count according to the Results Center on Barack Obama's website had him ahead by 87 delegates, heading into the Potomac primaries this Tuesday. The total count is 1031 for Obama to Clinton's 944. Perhaps more stunning however is the number of states that each candidate has won.
Out of 31 states that have held their contests so far, Obama has defeated Clinton in 20 of those states. The margins of victory in each contest seems to differ by candidate.
The Fresh Political has done its own thorough analysis of each state based upon CNN statistics. This is what we have found:
Average Vote Share By Candidate (%)
According to this data, Obama's victories are both greater in number, and magnitude than Clinton's victories. The Median percentage in all contests as of Monday shows Obama performing much better on average. Obama's median percentage is 48.5% to Clinton's 32%. The disparity reflects Clinton's inability to perform well in smaller states, especially those holding caucuses. The average margin of victory in caucus states is even greater for Obama.
The Clinton campaign has recently been saying that their strategy is to do well in the fewer, more populous contests ahead. This includes Texas and Pennsylvania. If Clinton can pull off a win in these big states, it could potentially be viewed as an upset that might propel her to the nomination. However, this seems unlikely considering Obama's powerful performance in smaller states.
It is also important to note that Obama's average vote share is not only high due to his strong performance in caucus states. He has also shown the ability to eat away at Clinton's lead in states that she was expected to dominate. For example, her margin of victory in her home state of New York and neighboring New Jersey was half that of Obama's margin in his own home state of Illinois.
The averages seem to reflect that the tide is changing. Even in states where Clinton had a huge homefield advantage, Obama has demonstrated his ability to give Clinton a run for her money. Combine this with the momentum gained from his sweep this weekend, and it appears that Obama is leaving Clinton in the dust.
New national polls seem to reflect this changing tide. A USA Today poll today showed Obama leading Clinton by 3 points for the first time in any national poll.
8 comments:
I really enjoyed reading your analysis. You're on to the stratedy. I do think, however, that we'll see Obama go for the kill, as they say (I don't like this metaphor), and as he said on 60 Minutes last night.
Gotta got watch Michelle on LK--but thanks!
I think its incredible when you lay out the stats like that! It really puts things into perspective past all the media angles (or you're just creating your own, but there's nothing wrong with that either! We could use some more emphasis from this point of view of the race). Let's keep pushing for the momentum! Go Obama!
Good analysis. One thing though, although Obama has won more states by a greater average lead, because the states that Hillary has won are larger in terms of population and awarded delegates, this is why they are still nearly level in overall delegates.
A greater average win obscures the fact that a 5% lead in California is still greater than a 15% lead in Alaska (in terms of numbers)
What I'd really like to see is the total number of individual votes for each candidate, in order to see who is getting the greatest share of the vote overall.
That said, Go Obama!!!
I understand what you're saying. This was an attempt to show another side of the story. This is still a confederation and winning state contests matters. The delegate count is all the mainstream media has been covering, however I believe that the margin of victory in each state speaks to Obama's ability to campaign effectively and win over voters, especially in the smaller states. It demonstrates that when voters see Obama, he wins... and wins BIG! But in the large states, name recognition allows Clinton to edge him out. It seems to be a trend.
Here's what I came up with, using numbers from MSNBC because their page layout was the easiest. The numbers were from late Sunday night.
Clinton ------ Obama
9,099,403 --- 8,680,010 --- sum of voters
8,771,252 --- 8,680,010 --- minus michigan
8,242,195 --- 8,110,969 --- minus FL
7,914,044 --- 8,110,969 --- minus both
Thanks for your work in presenting this information.
CNN have just started displaying the delegate count as pledged and superdelegates seperately rather than just the totals.
Its interesting as this is clearly showing people who might not otherwise realise that Obama is ahead on the popular vote, and is only behind overall due to the superdelegates.
Cheers for the analysis and thanks to Pan for giving us the total votes breakdown. Its good to see the difference with Michigan & Florida excluded...
Nice anaylsis Top Seo Blog
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